Gasoline and crude oil prices seem to be on everyone’s mind these days. But what if these increases snowball into a full-blown energy crisis where supply is disrupted and basis energy needs go unmet?

As improbably a concept as this seems, there is an increase in the number of folks out there preparing for such a scenario, as evidenced by this article that was linked off the Drudge Report. Many of these folks point to a theory called “Peak Oil”, which basically states that world oil production will soon peak (if it hasn’t already) and then steady decline all while demand continues to increase.

So if we are indeed in a peak oil scenario, what is the result? Many analyst would argue that we are a long way away from a peak oil scenario as oil exploration technology increases and we continue to find more reserves to extract. Others argue that while peak oil will happen, we will see technological advances in alternative energy that will gradually transition us away from dependence on oil. Others make the argument for a doomsday scenario in which there are staggering increases in the price of oil as demand continues to increase, resulting in a breakdown of many of our economic systems and modern conveniences that are dependent on oil. The argument is that we ignored the need to explore alternative energy technologies for too long and that we will not have time to make these technologies a viable alternative to oil before all hell breaks loose.

Those believing in the doomsday scenario are actively preparing for a return to the stone ages. Some are moving out to the country and learning how to live off the land and survive without the benefit of modern conveniences. Many are starting their own gardens, learning to raise their own animals, and even building up arsenals to defend their stockpiles. Often they are hesitant to provide many details of their preparation or even talk about their belief in the impending crisis out of fear that they will make themselves targets of those looking for the necessities of survival.

So what is my opinion on all of this? Honestly, I lean more towards the doomsday scenario. I think that we will start to see even more economic difficulties in the next few years as prices continue to rise due to the increasing price of oil. I’m not totally convinced that we will ever get to the “Mad Max” scenario of total lawlessness, however I think it is enough of a possibility that we should prepare for it. So what is on my preparedness to do list? Here’s a taste:

1. Maintain my food storage. I wrote recently about the idea of buying food as an investment. As members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, we follow the counsel of our church leaders to store food in the case of an emergency (which by the way may also be a personal economic emergency like a job loss instead of a Katrina-like natural disaster or Peak Oil doomsday). We have a good amount already stored, however it would be worthwhile to make sure that our stores are appropriate and make adjustments where necessary.
2. Pay off debt. If times get tough and you can’t maintain employment you don’t want your creditors coming after your stuff or your home. The last thing you want is to become homeless in the middle of an economic crisis.
3. Plant a garden. If oil prices continue to increase, produce will cost more to transport to your local market and take a bigger dent from your wallet. I’ve never done it, but I have heard it is not too hard to maintain a small garden, and it is hard to beat fresh produce.
4. Building a survivalist library. Would you know how to purify water? How about growing a garden or making minor household repairs? Could you make a meal at home that doesn’t come in a box with the name “Stoeffer’s” on it? A few books about how to make basic repairs to your home, gather and purify water, and prepare meals would be essential in an environment requiring self-sufficiency.
5. Building an arsenal. OK, this one may be somewhat controversial, but what good is it to store the essentials for survival if you are easy prey for a desperate person with a gun? Sadly in this type of environment you should have some means of defending yourself. And remember that when the Democrats win the White House and increase their majorities in the Congress, there will be nothing to stop them from enacting increasingly restrictive gun control laws.
6. Gathering tools. If you are going to have to do for yourself, you are going to need some basic tools like hammers, saws, axes, and the like. You won’t have the convenience of just running down to Home Depot midway through a project when you figure out you need something.

There are many other things that you can (and probably should) do to prepare for tough times ahead. This list is just a start.

Do I feel certain that this will happen? No. In fact, I think it would be foolish to make major lifestyle changes or to shun our established financial systems and investments based on the idea that we could end up plunging into the Dark Ages. My recommendation would be to continue to be gainfully employed and to live your lives. Go into work tomorrow, pay your bills, and keep contributing to the old 401(k). However, some preparation is wise, and little harm could come from these types of steps. Who couldn’t benefit from being debt-free, eating fresh fruits and vegetables, and knowing how to cook their own meals and make minor repairs? The point is to make sure you aren’t in a position where you will be completely dependent on the government or someone else for survival. You could find the help you need isn’t coming!

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